While I’ve found much of the Western Conference play-in games to be highly enthralling—excluding the lopsided Kings-Pelicans matchup, which made my previous skepticism of a Zion-less New Orleans roster and the heaps of praise I gave to Keon Ellis look just a little bit foolish—most of the Eastern Conference play-in games didn’t match that same level of in-the-moment exhilaration. Nonetheless, there were a few things that caught my attention this time around.
[Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia:] What a strange game this was to watch in real-time. For a while—and we’re talking an entire half’s worth of basketball here—this was a brick-fest of the highest order. It was as if someone placed an invisible lid on Philadelphia’s basket, with Joel Embiid shooting 2-8, Tyrese Maxey shooting 3-9, and Tobias Harris shooting 3-8 from the field. Miami wasn’t fairing much better, with Butler’s early MCL sprain leading him to shoot 2-8, while Tyler Herro scored 9 points on an abysmal 4-12 shooting by the end of the first half.
Throughout the broadcast, you often heard Doris Burke, one of the commentators of the 76ers vs. Heat matchup, comment about how Joel Embiid “didn’t look healthy” or something along those lines—and though the 30-year-old big looked somewhat banged up and unconditioned, Miami’s aggressive zone defense didn’t do him much favors.
Miami’s aggression, in particular, disincentivized Embiid from operating in the middle of the half-court, as it left him especially vulnerable to Butler—who has a near-unparalleled ability to read and intercept passes—pick-pocketing the big to utter oblivion, constantly exploiting Embiid’s “blindspots” for free transition points. Consequently, in the first half, Butler racked up a near-career-best four steals in 18 minutes, two of which led to his only field goals of the first half. Not only is that indicative of the 76ers’ slopiness and questionable game-plan execution, but also Butler’s struggles to generate points in the half-court.
So, with All-Stars Embiid and Maxey struggling to generate advantages and points, as the 76ers trailed the Heat by as many as 14 points, who was Philadelphia’s savior? Well, they had two momentum-shifting saviors: free-chicken and the 35-year-old Nicolas Batum, who, with his 8 points and lockdown defense, was a genuine revelation in the fourth quarter.
Hot streaks are fun, but shutting down “Playoff Jimmy,” the same player that spearheaded the league’s first 8th vs. 1st seed upset in over a decade, is more interesting. And, it turns out, Batum and co. used the same rock-solid formula that had previously stopped the six-time All-Star from putting the nail in the coffin: add resistance to his drives, don’t give Butler any room to operate.
When defending Jimmy Butler, there are a few cardinal sins a defense should never commit: (1) don’t play drop-coverage, (2) don’t put your weakest defenders on Butler, (3) don’t give him space, (4) not sending help. For reference, if you look at Butler’s performances against the Milwaukee Bucks or the first two games against the Boston Celtics last year, both teams, to some extent, committed all those sins and paid dearly.
So, how do you “stop” Jimmy Butler? Well, for one, you need a defender that can vertically contest his shots—preferably a wing with a good wingspan. That defender also must be hyper-astute with their hands and body; the last thing you want is for Butler, who has averaged 8.3 free throws per contest the previous five seasons, going to the charity stripe for two or three easy points. And, most importantly of all, you need to make Butler work for his points. He’ll hit some tough shots, but if you stay in front of him and force him out of his sweet spots, you’ll see him struggle to generate points in the half-court; look at how Butler performed against Boston after game two, going from 31.0 points on 55.6% true-shooting to 22.2 points on 50.0% true-shooting.
And what a fortune it is for the 76ers that their “Butler Stopper(s),” though, granted, he was injured, was Batum and Kyle Lowry, whom he shot a combined 1-9 against. Exacerbating much of a limping Butler’s struggles was Nick Nurse, who frequently added a second line of defense, whether it was Lowry or Tobias Harris, to cover potential driving lanes.
[Kaseya Center, Miami:] Unfortunately for Miami, despite their comfortable win against the Chicago Bulls, Butler is expected to miss several weeks, meaning he’ll presumably miss the rest of their series against the Boston Celtics. So what’s their saving grace?
Since February, with the help of a zone defense that few teams have successfully cracked, the Miami Heat have a league-best 108.2 defensive rating. Granted, Butler had significant contributions to Miami’s success as a defensive unit, but part of what makes Miami such a defensive juggernaut is their personnel beyond Butler; they held a 112.2 defensive rating without their star wing, which would have ranked top five in the league. And considering Boston’s long history of struggling against Erik Spoelstra’s zone defense, if a historic playoff upset were to occur, this is where it would all start.
What won’t be their saving grace, however, is their putrid offense, which is ranked 21st in the league—with their offensive rating going from a passably competent 117.6 to a highly concerning 111.1 without Butler.
Tyler Herro’s campaign has been cut short multiple times this season, playing only 42 games due to nagging knee and foot injuries. However, with what we have seen, there isn’t much that points to the direction of a 24-year-old Herro being good enough to spearhead this Miami offense, especially against playoff-caliber competition. Heat fans are hoping the best has yet to come after Herro ended the play-in tournament with a near-triple double—those nine assists show signs that he could bend opposing defenses to his advantage—but that was against a bottom-10 defense in the league; how would he fair against Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jayson Tatum, or Jaylen Brown?
I will say, however, that I am keenly impressed with Jaime Jaquez Jr., who appears to be solidifying his status as a high-level supporting piece after a somewhat up-and-down rookie season—for context, he averaged 14.0 points on 51.3% shooting in his first 39 games, only for it to drop to 9.5 points on 45.4% shooting in his remaining 36 games. Despite slowing down by the end of the season, Jaquez has averaged 18 points in his last five games, and his offensive aggression, whether it’s attacking off the catch or in transition, has translated against tougher opponents.
I don’t want to be over-reactionary and call him a potential star in the making, Jaquez hasn’t posted these numbers consistently throughout an 82-game season and is generally benefitting from Miami’s off-ball sets and Tyler Herro’s offensive gravity, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he isn’t a high-level contributor for Miami several years from now. Hell, you can make the case that he is one right now.
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